All Issue

2026 Vol.35, Issue 2 Preview Page

Original Articles

Calibration and Evaluation of the SIMPLE Crop Model for Chili Pepper Growth and Yield Simulation under Korean Field Conditions

국내 노지 재배 조건에서 고추 생육 및 수량 모의를 위한 SIMPLE 작물 모델의 보정 및 평가

Yu Kyeong Shin1†
,
Ha Seon Sim2†
,
Yu Hyun Moon2
,
Tae Yeon Lee2
,
Yong Jun Kim2
,
Na Kyoung Kim2
,
Jin Woo Lee2
,
Tae Hyun Kim2
,
Ha Rang Shin2
,
Soo Bin Jung2
,
Sung Kyeom Kim345*
신 유경1†
,
심 하선2†
,
문 유현2
,
이 태연2
,
김 용준2
,
김 나경2
,
이 진우2
,
김 태현2
,
신 하랑2
,
정 수빈2
,
김 성겸345*
1Researcher, Vegetable Research Division, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Wanju 55365, Korea
2Graduate Student, Department of Horticultural Science, College of Agricultural and Science, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea
3Professor, Department of Horticultural Science, College of Agricultural and Science, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea
4Professor, Institute of Agricultural Science and Technology, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea
5Center Director, World Horti Center, Kyungpook National University, Sangju 37224, Korea
1농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 채소기초기반과 농업연구사
2경북대학교 농업생명과학대학 원예과학과 대학원생
3경북대학교 농업생명과학대학 원예과학과 교수
4경북대학교 농업과학기술연구소 교수
5경북대학교 World Horti Center 센터장
*Corresponding Author
†Yu Kyeong Shin and Ha Seon Sim contributed equally to the manuscript.
30 April 2026. pp. 101-116
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

This study investigated the growth characteristics and yield of chili pepper cultivars at production sites in Andong and Yeongyang, Gyeongsangbuk-do Province, and evaluated the predictive performance of the SIMPLE crop model. Seven cultivars, comprising two existing and five newly released varieties, were tested and categorized into adaptive and resilience groups based on breeder-provided performance data. Temperature analysis from 2019 to 2023 revealed minimal climatic differences between regions, with both sites accumulating approximately 1,800°C·day GDD by season end. Adaptive cultivars exhibited compact canopy architecture and greater vegetative biomass, while resilience cultivars displayed an open canopy structure with elongated internodes. Regional differences were apparent in reproductive efficiency: in Andong, both groups achieved comparable final yields, whereas in Yeongyang, adaptive cultivars produced significantly higher yields. The SIMPLE model was modified to incorporate a first-order decay term to account for late-season biomass decline attributable to leaf senescence and assimilate redistribution toward maturing fruits. Calibration yielded distinct regional parameter sets: Andong was characterized by rapid early growth, high radiation use efficiency, and low heat tolerance, while Yeongyang showed gradual growth, high heat tolerance, and an elevated harvest index. Model performance varied considerably across site–cultivar combinations, indicating that predictive accuracy is governed by interactions between cultivar traits and microenvironmental conditions. Region-specific calibration and mechanistically improved senescence modules are essential for enhancing model robustness and transferability across diverse Korean chili pepper production environments. Multi-year, multi-site validation and uncertainty analysis are identified as priorities for future work.

Keywords
chili pepper
crop model
growth prediction
RMSE
SIMPLE model

본 연구는 경상북도 안동시와 영양군의 고추 주산지를 대상으로 고추 품종의 생육 특성과 수량을 조사하고 SIMPLE 작물모델의 예측 성능을 평가하기 위해 수행되었다. 시험에는 기존 품종 2개와 신육성 품종 5개를 포함한 총 7개 품종이 사용되었으며, 육종가가 제공한 성능 자료를 바탕으로 적응형(adaptive)과 회복형(resilience) 그룹으로 분류하였다. 2019년부터 2023년까지의 기온 자료를 분석한 결과 두 지역 간 기후 차이는 미미하였으며, 두 지점 모두 작기 종료 시점에 약 1,800°C·day의 GDD가 누적되었다. 적응형 품종은 밀집형 수관 구조와 더 많은 영양생장 바이오매스를 나타낸 반면, 회복형 품종은 개방형 수관 구조와 신장된 절간을 보였다. 생식효율의 지역적 차이가 뚜렷하여, 안동에서는 두 그룹의 최종 수량이 유사하였으나 영양에서는 적응형 품종의 수량이 유의하게 높았다. SIMPLE 모델은 잎 노화 및 성숙과실로의 동화산물 재분배에 따른 작기 후반부 바이오매스 감소를 반영하기 위해 1차 감쇠항(first-order decay term)을 도입하여 수정되었다. 캘리브레이션 결과 두 지역에서 서로 다른 매개변수 세트가 도출되었으며, 안동은 빠른 초기 생장, 높은 광이용효율, 낮은 내고온성을, 영양은 점진적 생장, 높은 내고온성, 높은 수확지수를 특징으로 하였다. 모델 성능은 지점-품종 조합에 따라 상당한 변이를 보였으며, 이는 예측 정확도가 품종 특성과 미환경 조건 간 상호작용에 의해 결정됨을 시사하였다. 한국의 다양한 고추 생산환경에서 모델의 강건성과 전이성을 향상시키기 위해서는 지역 특이적 캘리브레이션과 기계론적으로 개선된 노화 모듈이 필수적이며, 다년차·다지점 검증과 불확실성 분석이 향후 우선 과제로 제시된다.

키워드
고추
광이용효율
생장도일
수확지수
작물모델
잎 노화
References
1

Abayechaw D (2021) Review on decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) model. Inf Syst 10:126-133. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijiis.20211006.13

10.11648/j.ijiis.20211006.13
2

Benitez-Alfonso Y, Soanes BK, Zimba S, Sinanaj B, German L, Sharma V, Bohra A, Kolesnikova A, Dunn JA, Martin AC, Khashi u Rahman M, Saati-Santamaría Z, García-Fraile P, Ferreira EA, Frazão LA, Cowling WA, Siddique KHM, Pandey MK, Farooq M, Varshney RK, Chapman MA, Boesch C, Daszkowska-Golec A, Foyer CH (2023) Enhancing climate change resilience in agricultural crops. Curr Biol 33:R1246-R1261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2023.10.028

10.1016/j.cub.2023.10.028
3

Beven K, Binley A (1992) The future of distributed models. Hydrol Process 6:279-298. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.3360060305

10.1002/hyp.3360060305
4

Challinor A, Wheeler T, Craufurd P, Slingo J, Grimes D (2004) Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops. Agric For Meteorol 124:99-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.002

10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.002
5

Chen Z, Shah Jahan M, Mao P, Wang M, Liu X, Guo S (2021) Functional growth, photosynthesis and nutritional property analyses of lettuce grown under different temperature and light intensity. J Hortic Sci Biotechnol 96:53-61. https://doi.org/10.1080/14620316.2020.1807416

10.1080/14620316.2020.1807416
6

Choudhury FK, Rivero RM, Blumwald E, Mittler R (2017) Reactive oxygen species, abiotic stress and stress combination. Plant J 90:856-867. https://doi.org/10.1111/tpj.13299

10.1111/tpj.13299
7

Dai J (2025) Impact of climate policy uncertainty on agriculture development: multidimensional analysis from land use, food structure, and carbon emissions. Land Degrad Dev 36:4545- 4561. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.5652

10.1002/ldr.5652
8

Fahad S, Bajwa AA, Nazir U, Anjum SA, Farooq A, Zohaib A, Sadia S, Nasim W, Adkins S, et al (2017) Crop production under drought and heat stress: plant responses and management options. Front Plant Sci 8:1147. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2017.01147

10.3389/fpls.2017.0114728706531PMC5489704
9

Fatichi S, Vivoni ER, Ogden FL, Ivanov VY, Mirus B, Gochis D, Downer CW, Camporese M, Davison JH, et al (2016) An overview of current applications, challenges, and future trends in distributed process-based models in hydrology. J Hydrol 537:45-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.026

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.026
10

Han D, Yoo D, Kim T (2023) Analysis of social welfare impact of crop pest and disease damages due to climate change: a case study of dried red peppers. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 10:1-13. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-01873-x

10.1057/s41599-023-01873-x
11

Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Batchelor WD, Hunt L, Wilkens PW, Singh U, Gijsman AJ, et al (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. Eur J Agron 18:235-265. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00107-7

10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00107-7
12

Jung M, Kim J, Kim E-Y, Yoo C, Ko D, Lee H, Chae Y, Kim Y-M, Yi G (2024) Climate change impacts on Allium crop production: Insights from long-term observations in South Korea. Heliyon 10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34749

10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e3474939130470PMC11315144
13

Kareya MS, Mariam I, Nesamma AA, Jutur PP (2020) CO2 sequestration by hybrid integrative photosynthesis (CO2-SHIP): a green initiative for multi-product biorefineries. Mater Sci Energy Technol 3:420-428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mset.2020.03.002

10.1016/j.mset.2020.03.002
14

Khaitov B, Umurzokov M, Cho K-M, Lee Y-J, Park KW, Sung J (2019) Importance and production of chilli pepper; heat tolerance and efficient nutrient use under climate change conditions. Korean J Agric Sci 46:769-779. https://doi.org/10.7744/kjoas.20190059

10.7744/kjoas.20190059
15

Kim S, Shin J-Y, Heo J-H (2025) Assessment of future rainfall quantile changes in South Korea based on a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Water 17:894. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17060894

10.3390/w17060894
16

KOSIS (Korean Statistical Information Service) (2024) Vegetable production (fruits and vegetables) (in Korean). https://kosis.kr/statHtml/statHtml.do?conn_path=I2&tblId=DT_1ET0309&orgId=101 Accessed 20 July 2025

17

Lee SG, Kim SK, Lee HJ, Lee HS, Lee JH (2018) Impact of moderate and extreme climate change scenarios on growth, morphological features, photosynthesis, and fruit production of hot pepper. Ecol Evol 8:197-206. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3647

10.1002/ece3.364729321863PMC5756829
18

Lim E-S, Park S-I, Kim J-S, Sohn H-Y (2024) Comparison of antioxidant, antidiabetic, and antithrombotic activities of native Korean and improved pepper varieties. J Life Sci 34:385-392. https://doi.org/10.5352/JLS.2024.34.6.385

10.5352/JLS.2024.34.6.385
19

Luck J, Spackman M, Freeman A, Tre˛ bicki P, Griffiths W, Finlay K, Chakraborty S (2011) Climate change and diseases of food crops. Plant Pathol 60:113-121. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02414.x

10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02414.x
20

Mäkelä A, Landsberg J, Ek AR, Burk TE, Ter-Mikaelian M, Ågren GI, Oliver CD, Puttonen P (2000) Process-based models for forest ecosystem management: current state of the art and challenges for practical implementation. Tree Physiol 20:289-298. https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/20.5-6.289

10.1093/treephys/20.5-6.289
21

Mares-Quinones MD, Valiente-Banuet JI (2019) Horticultural aspects for the cultivated production of Piquin peppers (Capsicum annuum L. var. glabriusculum) — a review. HortScience 54:70-75. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTSCI13451-18

10.21273/HORTSCI13451-18
22

Pagamas P, Nawata E (2008) Sensitive stages of fruit and seed development of chili pepper (Capsicum annuum L. var. Shishito) exposed to high-temperature stress. Sci Hortic 117:21-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2008.03.017

10.1016/j.scienta.2008.03.017
23

Park C-K, Byun H-R, Deo R, Lee B-R (2015) Drought prediction till 2100 under RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios for Korea. J Hydrol 526:221-230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.043

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.043
24

Pasley H, Brown H, Holzworth D, Whish J, Bell L, Huth N (2023) How to build a crop model. A review. Agron Sustain Dev 43:2. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-022-00854-9

10.1007/s13593-022-00854-9
25

Rejeb IB, Pastor V, Mauch-Mani B (2014) Plant responses to simultaneous biotic and abiotic stress: molecular mechanisms. Plants 3:458-475. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants3040458

10.3390/plants304045827135514PMC4844285
26

Singh HCP (2013) Adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate-resilient horticulture. In HCP Singh, ed, Climate-resilient horticulture: Adaptation and mitigation strategies. Springer, pp 1-12.

10.1007/978-81-322-0974-4_1
27

Trovato M, Forlani G, Signorelli S, Funck D (2019) Proline metabolism and its functions in development and stress tolerance. In MA Hossain, V Kumar, DJ Burritt, M Fujita, PSA Mäkelä, eds, Osmoprotectant-mediated abiotic stress tolerance in plants. Springer, pp 41-72. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-27423-8_2

10.1007/978-3-030-27423-8_2
28

van Diepen CA, Wolf J, van Keulen H, Rappoldt C (1989) WOFOST: a simulation model of crop production. Soil Use Manag 5:16-24. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-2743.1989.tb00755.x

10.1111/j.1475-2743.1989.tb00755.x
29

Weng J, Li P, Rehman A, Wang L, Gao X, Niu Q (2021) Physiological response and evaluation of melon (Cucumis melo L.) germplasm resources under high temperature and humidity stress at seedling stage. Sci Hortic 288:110317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2021.110317

10.1016/j.scienta.2021.110317
30

White SN, Boyd NS, Van Acker RC (2012) Growing degree-day models for predicting lowbush blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium Ait.) ramet emergence, tip dieback, and flowering in Nova Scotia, Canada. HortScience 47:1014-1021. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTSCI.47.8.1014

10.21273/HORTSCI.47.8.1014
31

Woo S, Kim W, Chang SW, Chung I-M (2025) Seasonal hydrologic responses to climate change based on a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble: A case study of An-Seong watershed in South Korea. J Hydrol Reg Stud 60:102491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102491

10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102491
32

Zakir I, Ahmad S, Haider ST-A, Ahmed T, Hussain S, Saleem MS, Khalid MF (2024) Sweet pepper farming strategies in response to climate change: enhancing yield and shelf life through planting time and cultivar selection. Sustainability 16:6338. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16156338

10.3390/su16156338
33

Zhao C, Liu B, Xiao L, Hoogenboom G, Boote KJ, Kassie BT, Pavan W, Shelia V, Kim KS, et al (2019) A SIMPLE crop model. Eur J Agron 104:97-106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2019.01.009

10.1016/j.eja.2019.01.009
34

Zhu J, Zhang Y, Yang G, Liu S (2024) Assessing different models to predict the growth and development of pepper plants under water deficits. Front Plant Sci 15:1436209. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2024.1436209

10.3389/fpls.2024.143620939722873PMC11668610
Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society for Bio-Environment Control
  • Publisher(Ko) :(사)한국생물환경조절학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Bio-Environment Control
  • Journal Title(Ko) :생물환경조절학회지
  • Volume : 35
  • No :2
  • Pages :101-116
  • Received Date : 2025-11-10
  • Revised Date : 2026-03-31
  • Accepted Date : 2026-04-11
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.12791/KSBEC.2026.35.2.101
Journal Informaiton Journal of Bio-Environment Control Journal of Bio-Environment Control
Online Submission
  • NRF
  • KOFST
  • crossref crossmark
  • crossref cited-by
  • crossref funder-registry
  • crosscheck
  • orcid
  • open access
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close